Disclosure: I have a position in AST SpaceMobile. I'm short $50 puts in Fidelity and Vanguard. I hold long ASTS shares and I just took a full loss on a short-dated put credit spread in Robinhood. All of the open option positions lose money when the stock falls. Keep that in mind as you read this.
ASTS is down about 10% today to around $32. That continues a slide that started in early October, when SpaceX agreed to buy Grain Management's nationwide low-band spectrum portfolio. AST had pursued those same frequencies. The stock has kept falling into next week's earnings and my short puts are now deep in the money. AppLovin's roughly 29% jump today offsets some of the pain. This post is about the ASTS side.
What happened to the stock
On October 8 Grain Management said SpaceX would acquire its nationwide 800 MHz low-band portfolio, subject to FCC approval. Terms were not disclosed. Coverage from Yahoo Finance / 24/7 Wall St. and others noted that AST had been interested in the same airwaves and that the deal closes off one path to more low-band capacity. AST's carrier deals with AT&T and Verizon and its Ligado mid-band agreements are separate from that transaction.
Since then the stock has kept grinding lower. Reports this week that SpaceX may be looking at EchoStar's Boost Mobile added another competitive headline. Those reports are unconfirmed. My short puts have a $50 strike and the shares are near $32.
AST holds its third quarter business update call on Monday, November 9 at 5:00 p.m. ET, after the close (company release). That is the next hard date on the calendar.
My positions
I sold $50 puts because I was willing to own more ASTS around the high $30s. The Fidelity May 2027 puts brought in about $13 a share. The two Vanguard January 2027 lots brought in about $11 and $10 a share. Those are approximate premiums from my Wednesday position read, so the breakevens below are approximate too.
I also had a short-dated Robinhood November 6 $52/$48 put credit spread with two contracts. That one was closed early by assignment and exercise at its max loss of $610. It is done. I still hold long ASTS shares bought at about a $57 average cost. Those are underwater with the stock near $32 and I am leaving the share count out of this post.
| Position | Strike | Expiry | Contracts | Premium (approx.) | Breakeven | Max profit | P/L at $32.18 at expiry | Max loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidelity short put | $50 | May 21, 2027 | 10 | ~$13.04 | ~$36.96 | ~$13,040 | ~-$4,780 | ~$36,960 |
| Vanguard short put | $50 | Jan 15, 2027 | 10 | ~$11.09 | ~$38.91 | ~$11,090 | ~-$6,730 | ~$38,910 |
| Vanguard short put | $50 | Jan 15, 2027 | 5 | ~$10.05 | ~$39.95 | ~$5,025 | ~-$3,885 | ~$19,975 |
Premiums are per share and each contract covers 100 shares. Max loss assumes the stock goes to zero after assignment. At today's price the three puts would lose about $15,400 if they expired right now. They do not. The January contracts still have a little over two months and the May contracts have about six and a half. Time and a rebound can still change the outcome. Right now the marks are well against me: the Fidelity puts are around $21 and the Vanguard puts are around $19, against premiums of roughly $10 to $13.
How I read the drop
I do not think the Grain deal by itself kills AST's business. The company still has carrier partners and a mid-band path through Ligado. What the deal does is make SpaceX a more complete competitor in direct-to-phone service and it removes one spectrum option AST wanted. The market has treated that as a serious competitive reset and the Boost Mobile reporting this week kept that theme alive.
Part of the move also looks larger than the change in the business. When a name trades at a high multiple and a bigger rival locks up spectrum, selling comes fast. That does not make the competitive risk fake. It does mean the price can move further than the fundamentals shift in a single week.
I sold puts with breakevens in the high $30s and the stock is now in the low $30s. That is the wrong side of the trade. I was paid for the risk and so far that risk is showing up in the marks.
What I am watching on Monday
The November 9 call is where I want specifics. I care most about launch cadence and how many BlueBird satellites will be up by early 2027. Continuous service depends on getting from the low teens in orbit today toward roughly 45. I also want a clear read on the AT&T and Verizon timeline and whether anything has changed in the Ligado arrangements. Cash runway matters too because a long buildout with a falling stock makes financing harder.
I am not closing the puts today. The January expiry is close enough that a bad print on Monday would hurt and a clean update on launches and partnerships would help. The May puts have more time. The long shares are a separate decision and I am sitting with them for now. If Monday is messy I will revisit whether to buy back some of the shorter puts rather than wait for assignment.
Today the ledger shows a loss. I would rather write that down clearly than wait for a bounce before saying anything.